President Trump, a Republican strategist complained to me recently, is hooked on lusty rally cheers that only a culture war can bring. This latent anxiety, from an experienced political guru rooting for Trump to win a second term, is no small concern. It's one shared by other GOP insiders.
The president is presiding over a booming economy that would be the envy of his predecessors, all 43 of them. Historically low unemployment, rising working-class wages, record stock market gains, low interest rates, virtually no inflation, and a new trade deal (finally) its the stuff that landslides are made of. But most days, Trump seems bored with it all. Oh, he likes to win, and he likes the bragging rights that accompany all of these gleaming statistics. But what really excites Trump is the roar of the crowd at one of his signature revivalist-style campaign rallies. And, what really excites the crowd is the president as conservative big-top showman, leading his supporters on the front lines of what they are convinced is a generational culture war to stop leftists in Hollywood, the news media, and the Democratic Party from outlawing the American way.
This phenomenon threatens to overshadow a record of economic stewardship that might otherwise guarantee Trump a winning 2020 coalition, especially because the outsize media coverage the presidents rally performances attract can obscure almost everything else he says and does that might keep disaffected Republicans in the fold and lock in swing voters. Both blocs, at best indifferent to Trump as culture warrior, at worst completely repulsed, helped put Trump in the White House nearly four years ago, and each is crucial to a November sequel.
The Trump campaign rally has changed the face of contemporary American politics, said Jeffrey Brauer, a political science professor at Keystone College in Pennsylvania, an electoral battleground the president covets. What remains is the question of whether these rallies will work again in 2020 after three-plus years of a divisive Trump presidency.
As Brauers question reminds us, the Trump rally was quite successful in 2015 and 2016. Often dismissed as counterproductive and too catered to Trumps uncommonly loyal voting base, this traveling road show fueled his rise in the Republican primaries and victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton in the general election. Democrats should be worried, at least somewhat, because the 2020 version of the Trump rally is more sophisticated. This time around, the only haphazard, ad-libbed part of the spectacle is the president's onstage routine.
Led by Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale, with an assist from senior White House adviser Jared Kushner, the presidents son-in-law, and Trump campaign political director Chris Carr, each Trump rally is meticulously planned to identify and ink new Trump voters, add to the presidents growing army of campaign volunteers, and sell his agenda. Rally locations are chosen with precision to boost Trumps prospects in battlegrounds, and micro-battlegrounds, that matter. And this year, the campaign is bracketing Trumps stadium rallies with smaller, targeted affairs, such as the events his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, is headlining in proximal suburban strongholds.
A Trump campaign official told me that the rallies are a data gold mine and central to the presidents strategy.
According to statistics this official provided, the campaign has hosted a combined 258 rallies and related events (and counting) during Trumps first term that 3.3 million people registered to attend. From this list of names, 2.4 million voters were identified, 80% of whom live in battleground states and 396,000 of whom did not vote for Trump in 2016. Parscale typically tweets out the voter information collected at each rally. For instance, after the Trump rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania, on Dec. 10, Parscale said in a Twitter post that the event identified 23,000 voters. Twenty percent of them voted in only one of the last four elections, while 9% had never voted. Another 20% identified as Democrats, and 18% were nonwhite.
Trumps rally schedule, steady throughout his first nearly three years in office, has accelerated markedly in the first few weeks of the election year, placing the president on the stump far earlier than perhaps any of his predecessors. On Jan. 9, Trump was slated to travel to Toledo, Ohio, for a "Keep America Great" rally, followed by another on Jan. 14 in Milwaukee. On Jan. 28, Trump is headed to southern New Jersey for yet another rally.
Trump loves to campaign, said Ed Rollins, a veteran Republican operative who runs a pro-Trump super PAC. Talking to his people is what he likes best. He thrives on it and gains energy from it.
For the Trump loyalist, these rallies are more than politics. They are community. Some rallies are preceded by daylong festivals, dubbed 45 Fests, that feature live music, appearances by prominent Trump supporters, and other attractions. Many attendees are repeat customers dozens of times over. They come to organize, see friends, and hear Trump play his greatest rhetorical hits. Jason Miller, a former Trump political adviser, referred to the rallies as cultural destination centers for many Americans, a description not far off the mark.
Trump is placing a big bet on a campaign strategy centered on motivating voters already in his corner.
Yes, the presidents strategy involves growing the number of such voters. My base is much bigger than people think, he told me and a few of my Washington Examiner colleagues during an Oval Office interview last fall. And yes, the Trump campaign, and the president's allies, claim the rally is the only megaphone loud enough to broadcast his message over the din of impeachment-obsessed Democrats and a political press corps that covers him unfairly. But no president, including Trump, has ever captured the White House, or held it, on the strength of core supporters alone.
Managing a majority coalition is difficult, said David Winston, a Republican pollster. Your base is never big enough to win an election.
Victory is born of a big tent, and the Trump defined by rally appearances that can last 90 minutes and be, at times, comedic, antagonistic, self-deprecating, insulting, braggadocio, and narcissistic risks scaring away the traditional elements of his 2016 coalition, without which the Trump base would have been an interesting footnote in campaign history. According to exit polls, Trump beat Clinton among independents, 46% to 42%; outpaced her in the suburbs, 49% to 45%; and earned the support of 47% of married women, just 2 points shy of Clintons total in other words, voters inclined toward many Trump policies but disinclined toward his behavior.
Let history be our guide. Trumps bustling rally tour down the stretch of the campaign for the midterm elections was devoted to the dangers of the Democratic mob, socialism, open borders immigration, and other cultural flash points.
Democrats swept the suburbs to win control of the House with a pick-up of 40 seats. Even though Trump helped Republicans oust Democratic senators in deep red territory where he is popular, the Democrats also won an Arizona Senate seat for the first time in a generation and defeated a GOP incumbent senator in Nevada. Both states are dominated by suburban voters and have burgeoning minority populations. Trumps rhetoric and stump style, consistent, albeit backed by a refined operation, are not the only reasons Democrats are hopeful about the next election. But they rank pretty high on the list.
The president is his own worst enemy. If he talked 50% less, his numbers might reflect that, said Rodell Mollineau, a Democratic strategist. A strong economy might bring independents into the fold. His rhetoric at rallies is not doing that.
David M. Drucker is the senior political correspondent for the Washington Examiner.
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Election diet of red meat - Washington Examiner
