One of the more polarizing mens basketball players this season is junior guard Dachon Burke Jr. After transferring from Robert Morris University, Burke was forced to sit out a year and some expected him to leave after the firing of former head coach Tim Miles. However, Burke stayed, and this loyalty was rewarded with a significant role in head coach Fred Hoibergs offense.
First, though this piece is about Burkes offense, it should be noted that Defensive Box Plus-Minus ranks Burke as Nebraskas best defensive player. Much of this comes down to his steal percentage, which is the highest on the team. At the same time, some of his intangibles also shine through. He rarely gets beaten off the dribble and does well to keep hands in the passing lane. He has been punished on switches, but Nebraska shouldnt let him be switched onto a big man in the first place because of his slight frame.
Burkes offense isnt rated highly in Offensive Box Plus-Minus. Hes Nebraskas second-least impactful offensive starter, next to freshman forward Yvan Ouedraogo (whose O-BPM was covered in an article earlier this month), despite having the second-highest usage rate on the team. When this happens, its generally indicative of a player whose team role has outpaced their relative efficiency.
This is known as a skill curve, an old formulation from statistician Dean Oliver. It said that players can increase load while keeping about the same level of efficiency, but a continual increase in that load will reduce efficiency past equilibrium. Sometimes its the job of the coach to find that equilibrium and use the player in the best way to serve the team.
This is Burkes situation. The load hes asked to take is more than he should get, however Nebraska lacks secondary scoring punch, and Burke has to make up for that. Ideally, Hoiberg likes to spread his usage across players, but Burke needs to serve the role of secondary ball-handler and off-ball guard at the same time.
Hoibergs lineup is meant to sustain a primary play initiator. In Nebraskas case, sophomore guard Cam Mack, a pure off-ball creator, plays this role alongside junior guard Thorir Thorbjarnarson (note, creator does not mean off-the-dribble shooter but rather someone who has a fair profile of shots). The lineup also includes a screen-setting forward often times Ouedraogo, but sometimes freshman forward Kevin Cross and Burkes role, which is effectively two positions merged into one.
Why is this? Burke is most often used in lineups with either senior guard Haanif Cheatham or, more recently, freshman guard Charlie Easely. Neither of these players have much of any scoring ability. Cheatham is largely a liability in half-court offensive sets and has the seventh-lowest usage rate on the team. Most of his scoring comes in transition. Easely has a nice 3-point stroke, but hasnt quite shown it yet this season and his inside scoring punch is poor. Both of these players are played with Burke because they have useful defensive qualities (though Cheatham is more of a glue-guy currently).
In theory, lineups with both Burke and junior guard Jervay Green would be advantageous to Burke because that fulfills the role of off-ball guard and secondary ball-handler if needed. They would be able to coexist, but defensively the lineup may suffer. This is part of the reason why lineups with Burke and Green are only on the floor 6.4% of the time according to kenpom.com. Theyre similar players, who operate the same way in Hoibergs offense, and thered be redundancies if the two played together too often.
Burke can also be a highly volatile player. Against Wisconsin, he kept Nebraska from getting embarrassed, scoring 20 points on 10-14 shooting. Then, a game later against Rutgers, he only scored two points and didnt play in crunch time. This kind of instability can mean Burkes output swings games, and it also means that it can doom them. Surely, his eight shots against Rutgers couldve been better spent elsewhere.
With this all in mind, lets analyze how Burke scores his points to see whether or not itd be best to scrap his offensive diet altogether or if there can be minor tweaks to maximize efficiency. Again, Burke isnt playing hero-ball, his offense is Hoibergs aim, and its a matter of whether or not he can scale with higher-caliber players.
First, Burke likes to drive down the baseline, which can be a very good shot. In this highlight, Burke shows excellent basketball IQ against a Wisconsin team that wasnt set for the defensive possession. Hes called for an offensive foul, but it was still good recognition:
He has a less enviable tendency in that he likes to go cross-key even if theres a better option down the lane. This next highlight ends in a crafty finish, but it may have been better to not try to split the defenders and go in amongst the trees. A drive down the lane wouldve meant having only one defender in front of him rather than the two it ends up being:
Theres an old saying that good shots are shots that go in. And while that may be true, Burkes cross-key drives dont always go in.
Burke is good about not stalling out possessions off drives; he rarely will pass it back out if he drives in, but at the same time he can be forced out of drives into stepback shots or the complete re-initiation of play. This just generally decreases pace, which is not preferable in Hoibergs system.
Heres a highlight where Burke foregoes the drive in favor of a bad off-the-dribble, mid-range shot. Generally speaking, play re-initiation is probably preferable to mid-range shots:
This also highlights a bigger problem with Burkes offense. Hes fairly static, and if the drive is prevented, he has few consistent tools to punish the opposition. His 3-point shot is also inconsistent, and defenders can play off him fairly safely. If Burke was in an offense that was more dynamic and had more scoring outlets, the shortcomings in Burkes personal portfolio would be less obvious, but with his current usage these problems are stark.
Burke is the kind of player who scales well with high level talent but is definitely not a floor-raiser. If Nebraska was relying on him, thats a bad idea. Mack and Thorbjarnarsons more consistent production means Burke can be carried on his bad nights and let loose on the good, but switch the premises on either one of those and the result is inefficiency.
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Nebraskalytics: What the numbers say about Dachon Burke Jr.'s role on offense - Daily Nebraskan
