As COVID-19 vaccines continue to be administered and hospitalizations decrease, people like LaGesse and Scarpino are wondering if and when they can begin to safely return to having small gatherings such as family get-togethers, birthday parties, and garden club meetings.
Is it really safe to do this again?
Every infectious disease expert interviewed by Healthline for this story had the same answer to this question:
No.
They said now is definitely not the time to stop being vigilant, despite how things may seem to be trending.
In Los Angeles County, for example, the number of new patients hospitalized with COVID-19 daily is about 500 a day. Earlier this month, it was 800 a day, according to the Los Angeles Times.
The decreasing population of people in hospital intensive care units across the country make it seem like things are getting better.
But scientists said that beneath the surface of these developments there are concerns.
Making any decision about viral pandemics requires a look at whats likely to come not tomorrow, they said, but weeks and even months from now.
Things will only get worse if people let their guard down now, said Dr. Robert Turner Schooley, an infectious disease physician and senior director of international initiatives at the University of California San Diego School of Medicine.
He told Healthline that the danger is actually rising again because of the COVID-19 variants that have already landed in the United States.
Schooley said this is now a race between the vaccines and the variants.
But hes optimistic.
While the timeline on the vaccine rollout was held up because of poor planning and not enough vaccines, Schooley said, the drug companies and federal government are now getting things up to speed.
Both the Johnson & Johnson and Novavax vaccines may soon join the Moderna and Pfizer shots, too.
We can roll out these vaccines much more aggressively in the second quarter of this year, Schooley said. Until then, it would be unwise to mix and mingle. It just gives this virus more chances to replicate.
Schooley said he understands that virus fatigue is a factor in the United States and around the world.
But he warns that if people are less diligent now, there will be even more cases than we saw in the most recent surge.
With the current lifting of controls, we will see surges that, based on our projections, will be least 50 to 75 percent worse than it was a few weeks ago when it was so bad, he said.
Schooley said well see this happen in a month to 45 days if the country doesnt continue to follow COVID-19 safety protocols.
The U.K. variant is already here in San Diego, and the experience in the U.K. and Israel shows that it replaces the currently circulating virus within 4 to 6 weeks. The epidemic takes off again, unless you change isolation activities, he said.
New studies suggest that while the vaccines do appear to be effective against these new variants, the new strains are more contagious.
And in some cases, reinfections are more likely with these variants.
Last April, COVID-19 hit the city of Manaus, Brazil, hard.
Researchers estimated that the number of people who contracted the disease was so high that the city could have actually reached a theoretical herd immunity threshold.
But now the city is suffering a second surge from a variant of the original virus.
The variant is potentially more infectious and reportedly could be more adept at fighting the vaccines.
Dr. Deborah Lehman is an assistant professor of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of California Los Angeles.
The main focus of her research has been on the epidemiology and prevention of infectious diseases.
She told Healthline that while the general public was taken by surprise by the presence of these variants, scientists anticipated them.
No one who studies this is surprised that there are variants. This is what viruses do, she said. This is also what bacteria does to evade antibiotics.
Lehman said a variant can be more contagious than the original virus.
So, we need to be vigilant with distancing and masking. A variant can make a face mask ineffective, she said. Can a few particles stay in the air longer? Possibly.
Lehman said the good news is that the vaccines work well.
The Pfizer vaccine appeared to lose only a small bit of its effectiveness against the variant first detected in South Africa during a laboratory study conducted by the company.
In that study, Pfizer and scientists from the University of Texas Medical Branch determined there was a less than two-fold reduction in antibody titer levels.
Although the research hasnt been peer-reviewed, the scientists suggest that the vaccine would likely be effective in neutralizing a virus with the so-called E484K and N501Y mutations found in South Africa.
If the variants reduce that a bit, you are still getting a very effective vaccine, Lehman said.
Vaccines work by training our immune systems to create proteins known as antibodies that fight disease.
It does other things that assist your immune system as well, some of which we cannot even test for, Lehman said.
Lehman said scientists face a difficult task ahead in addressing the publics reluctance to get vaccinated.
But it must be done, she said.
How long will these COVID-19 vaccines remain effective in the body?
We are hoping for longer than a year, Lehman said. But if it is a year, this is nothing new. We require a vaccine every year for influenza. It would be great to see this virus die off. But might we have to keep vaccinating like the flu? Its a possibility.
Lehman said vaccines trick our bodies into believing they have seen the pathogen before. In the meantime, the immune system sends out its troops and helps develop immunity.
Experts said the vaccines prevent you from getting seriously ill, although they may prevent infection from the virus.
The hope is that it will also prevent the infection, Lehman said. Even if the vaccine in the end just prevents you from having to go to the hospital and the ICU, that turns a disease into something more like a bad cold.
Healthline asked people in every region of the United States to share their thoughts about when theyll feel safe venturing out again and attending small gatherings.
Larry Shuler, who lives in San Diego County, said that for the foreseeable future hell only attend small gatherings in which attendants show proof of vaccination.
I personally think that by June or July, with most people vaccinated, we will be able to have get-togethers again, he told Healthline.
However, it should only be for those that have proof they have been vaccinated. This will also be the case for restaurants and bars, who will allow people in with legitimate proof of being vaccinated and COVID free, Shuler said.
Dorie Griggs, a hospital-based chaplain from Roswell, Georgia, has received both doses of the Pfizer vaccine.
But her husband hasnt.
He is not in a high-risk group, so it may be a while before he can get the vaccine, Griggs told Healthline.
She and her husband limit their exposure by avoiding going out in general as well as wearing masks and physical distancing when they do go out.
I dont anticipate being able to get together in small groups until more people are immunized. If all in my small group are immunized I would gather with them, but really only about two additional couples, she said.
Justin Reilly, an attorney, activist and film producer from New York City, said he wont feel safe for a long time.
I wont do anything inside until everyone who wants to get vaccinated actually does and only if we do see huge reductions in transmission, he told Healthline.
I will still social distance and mask and wont actually feel safe, but I will be willing to take some more risks despite the danger. But I am quite concerned that people will let their guard down too soon, he said.
Jaime Cunningham, who also lives in New York City, said hes gotten a few friends together while masked and physically distanced.
But only outside. Never indoors, he told Healthline.
Cunningham thinks this process is going to be slow.
It will take another year until we can loosen up, maybe February or March of next year, he predicted. Next winter will be very telling as far as how good the vaccine really is, I think. We will forgo any international travel until into next year.
Ginny Blum, who lives in Montgomery County, Maryland, said: My nanny county will decide for me. I expect restrictions through this year. There will continue to be little fires of virus breaking out for some time.
Blum told Healthline that her county has been very active in fighting the pandemic: quick to close, slow to reopen, mask mandate in April, offering in-home testing if you need it. Not a place that left it up to individuals to decide what the right thing to do should be.
Cindy A. Roush-Hahn, who lives in Scottsdale, Arizona, said she and her husband have scheduled their vaccine appointment for Feb. 22.
We gather with friends now, outside when possible, and practice social distancing. I walk 3 miles outdoors with two neighbor gals every day. No masks, she told Healthline.
We wear masks to the grocery store and any other place they are required, she added. I have sanitizer in my car and purse. We eat in a restaurant weekly for lunch. We are the first customers in the restaurant and I clean off our table with wipes.
We will feel more comfortable getting together in larger groups other than our neighbors by summer, Roush-Hahn noted.
Several people told Healthline that theyre simply going to heed the advice of Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, and let science be their guide.
I trust Dr. Fauci completely. He is on top of this pandemic, said Suzanne McMullen Schafer. President Biden knew this also. Thats why Dr. Fauci is in the job he now has.
Tom Conroy, who lives in Eureka Springs, Arkansas, said: Ill feel safe exactly when Fauci says its safe. Not a moment sooner.
Kaaren Kozlow, a teachers assistant from Columbia, Maryland, said shell be ready for a social setting once the people in her circle are vaccinated.
Im going back to school without benefit of vaccination because our governor says that the benefits of a vaccine are marginal in a school setting. Im livid, but I will wear a mask on top of an N95 and a face shield, she told Healthline.
Kozlow calls this a lose/lose situation.
Im petrified, she said. But really what choice do I have? The board of education and governor are sending me back with threats of termination if I dont. I will go, heavily masked.
Rebecca Soliday, who works for a hospice in Minneapolis, Minnesota, received her first vaccine on Friday, Jan. 29.
After Ive had the second vaccination, I will feel better as far as contracting it myself, she told Healthline.
But I wont feel completely better until everyone in my household has been vaccinated and I wont venture out much more until its under more control and more people are vaccinated, she added.
Randy DePhillips, a retired police officer whos married with a family in Des Moines, Iowa, said he wont attend any social gatherings until 80 percent of the public is vaccinated.
But even then, I wouldnt feel totally safe. I think the days of a hug and/or handshake arent in the future for some time, he told Healthline.
Ralph Parrot, 80, who lives in Fairfax Station, Virginia, said he and his wife were vaccinated with their first shot on Wednesday.
Parrot said he and his wifes dream is to be able to have the familys normal week at the beach this year in mid-August with all 20-plus people being able to attend.
Ever the optimists, we have rented a big house down at Sandbridge, Virginia, to accommodate everyone, he told Healthline. This will be our 28th consecutive year. Even though last year was sparsely attended, we still had it.
Debbie Brooks Clouse, a Las Vegas, Nevada, resident, said shell be ready to attend small gatherings with friends in 2025.
And shes only half-kidding.
I live in Vegas and the system they are using isnt working to get people the vaccine, she told Healthline.
They are closing centers and canceling appointments daily and they are only giving them to ages 70-plus right now, but they are adding teachers to the approved list, Clouse said.
Steve Ruderman and his family just returned to their Southern California home after spending a month on the Hawaiian island of Maui.
The COVID numbers there were so much lower than California that we felt much safer there, said Ruderman, whos not eligible yet for a vaccine but did get tested to travel to Maui.
They are very good on wearing masks everywhere and you can find so many places on the island where there were no people or very small crowds, he told Healthline. The restaurants on Maui are running at 30 percent and outdoor dining so again feeling much safer.
Ruderman said that being back on the mainland, we are comfortable eating outdoors but wary of indoor dining and any kind of large crowds.
Sue Kelson, a wedding planner from Dallas, Texas, has received the first dose of vaccine and planned to attend a very, very small birthday party this weekend.
I will still wear a mask and will socially distance and the party will be COVID responsible as well, she told Healthline. This will be my first outing since March 9, 2020, outside of work,
Jay Reece, whos from Bolger, Texas, and now lives in California, said he never really stopped dining out during this pandemic.
We knew where to dine and have drinks the entire time throughout Southern California, he told Healthline.
Reece said the restaurants hes been going to are modern-day speakeasies that you enter through the back door.
He found out about these places through word of mouth.
They sure did need support and still do, he said. After 30 days of the heavy lockdown that started in March, I lost it. I had to go somewhere.
Reece said that at first it was only takeout, which we dont normally do.
Originally posted here:
COVID-19 Vaccines and Safety of Small Gatherings - Healthline
