Whats up fight crew! Time to head to Auckland, New Zealand this week, as Paul Felder makes the trek to take on Aucklands own Dan Hooker in what will no doubt be a banger. Sprinkled throughout the card is a number of fighters hailing from down under, showcasing a number of prospects looking to impress and quite possibly enter the rankings with a notch in the win column.
Lets jump into this card we have on deck Saturday!
SATURDAY 02/22/20 at 4 P.M. ETBROADCAST: ESPN+VENUE: Spark ArenaLOCATION: Auckland, New ZealandMATCHES: 13
MAIN CARD:
LIGHTWEIGHT 155LBS
#6 PAUL FELDER 17-4 (+130) VS #7 DAN HOOKER 19-8 (-150)
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 205LBS
JIM CRUTE 10-1 (+100) VS MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUIK 14-3 (-120)
WOMENS STRAWWEIGHT 115LBS
#14 KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ 12-5 (+220) VS YAN XIAONAN 11-1 (-260)
HEAVYWEIGHT 265LBS
BEN SOSOLI 7-2 (+120) VS MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA 16-6-1 (-140)
LIGHTWEIGHT 155LBS
BRAD RIDDELL 7-1 (+120) VS MAGOMED MUSTAFAEV 14-3 (-140)
FEATHERWEIGHT 145LBS
KEVIN AGUILAR 17-2 (-115) VS ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV 18-4-1 (-105)
PRELIMS:
LIGHTWEIGHT 155LBS
JALIN TURNER 8-5 (-210) VS JOSHUA CULIBAO 8-0 (+175)
WELTERWEIGHT 170LBS
JAKE MATTHEWS 15-4 (-200) VS EMIL MEEK 9-4 (+170)
WELTERWEIGHT 170LBS
CALLAN POTTER 18-8 (+170) VS SONG KENAN 15-5 (-200)
FLYWEIGHT 125LBS
#8 KAI KARA FRANCE 20-8 (-260) VS TYSON NAM 18-10-1 (+220)
WOMENS STRAWWEIGHT 115LBS
LOMA LOOKBOONMEE 4-1 (+155) VS ANGELA HILL 11-7 (-175)
WELTERWEIGHT 170LBS
MAKI PITOLO 12-5 (+120) VS TAKASHI SATO 15-3 (-140)
WOMENS FLYWEIGHT 125LBS
PRISCILA CACHOEIRA 8-3 (+180) VS SHANA DOBSON 3-3 (-220)
MATCHUPS TO TARGET:
#6 PAUL FELDER 17-4 (+130) VS #7 DAN HOOKER 19-8 (-150)
In every preview, if you havent noticed, I always discuss the main event as a fight target. This may be just the one to simply sit back and watch. These two will go at it in what looks to be the front runner for fight of the night even before the first bell. Both are coming in with back-to-back wins, looking to move up to possibly a contender eliminator-type matchup with a win Saturday night.
Felder will bring his in your face kickboxing with a strong clinch game. Hooker, the younger of the two, will look to utilize his range while controlling the pace, gunning for more output and keeping the dangerous Felder on his heels. Hooker will also have the crowd in his pocket and youd have to think when he lands anything the place will be loud.
Hooker opened up at -120 and has been bet up to -150 and continues to climb. Im really not surprised. That said, its hard to not find value in Felder. The guy is tougher than the steak I ate last night, and he only has two losses in the last five years. In both of those losses, he actually was injured. Against Francisco Trinaldo in 2016, the fight was stopped after a cut over his right eye just continued to get worse until the doctor called for the stop. Felder was heated as he was looking to continue. In his other loss against Mike Perry, Felder not only took the fight on short notice going up a weight division, but broke his right arm early on in the fight and continued on, losing a split decision. Like I said, the guy is tough. If you take away those injuries, we could be talking about a guy that hasnt lost in the last five years.
Hooker himself only has one loss in his last seven fights, and that was against Edson Barboza, the man Felder just recently beat. Its important to note that Felder actually commentated that Hooker/Barboza fight ringside, and saw first hand what it will take to beat this guy: leg kicks. Watch for Felder to close the range of Hooker, as this will be key for him in this matchup, and also mix in some leg kicks (just as Barboza did) right from the get go. Weve seen Hooker not check kicks consistently in the past, which could not only sway some momentum in Felders direction, but also give him the advantage if this one goes into the later rounds. This to me looks like a live dog opportunity with Felder in this spot.
Prediction: Paul Felder
#14 KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ 12-5 (+220) VS YAN XIAONAN 11-1 (-260)
Kowalkiewicz has dropped three straight while Xiaonan is looking to make it 10 wins in a row with a victory in this spot. I believe we see her get it done as well.
When we go back and look atKowalkiewiczs recent streak, she suffered a nasty KO loss to former champ Jessica Andrade in less than two minutes, and followed that up with two decisive losses against Michelle Waterson and Alexa Grasso. She hasnt won a single round in that span.
Although this will be a step up forXiaonan, I believe her fighting style will pose problems forKowalkiewicz.Xiaonanis fast, constantly throws combos and has some power. As of late, we havent seen the chin or output fromKowalkiewicz. Shes fought fairly hesitantoffensivelyin comparison to what we saw from her before that knockout defeat. This is a tough spot to be in mentally too, after traveling 20+ hours from Poland to get here with this recent stretch of losses and a potential pink slip weighing on your mind.
Xiaonan's the pick for me. Im not much of a parlay player, but this could be a spot to pair up with Dobson or Turner.
Prediction: Yan Xiaonan
JALIN TURNER 8-5 (-210) VS JOSHUA CULIBAO 8-0 (+175)
Turner was steamed a bit after weigh-ins and the line has shot up to -230 in some spots. Im not saying the weigh-ins are why, but Culibao looked pretty fluffy for a lightweight.
Turner will have a five-inch height advantage, along with four inches of reach on his side against Culibao, who is making his debut under the bright lights. Although Turner has been KOd three times and his chin is suspect, I dont see him having any issues here.
Turner comes out fast, and while this kid is still looking to calm his nerves, Turner will probably take control and put him in danger early. All of Turners eight victories have come by way of finish in the first round. Interestingly enough, any fight of his that has gone past that initial round, he has lost. No pressure.
Prediction: Jalin Turner
QUICK PREDICTIONS ON THE MATCHUPS:
PAUL FELDER defeats DAN HOOKER
MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUIK defeats JIM CRUTE
YAN XIAONAN defeats KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ
MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA defeats BEN SOSOLI
MAGOMED MUSTAFAEV defeats BRAD RIDDELL
KEVIN AGUILAR defeats ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV
JALIN TURNER defeats JOSHUA CULIBAO
JAKE MATTHEWS defeats EMIL MEEK
SONG KENAN defeats CALLAN POTTER
KAI KARA FRANCE defeats TYSON NAM
LOMA LOOKBOONMEE defeats ANGELA HILL
MAKI PITOLO 12-5 (+120) VS TAKASHI SATO 15-3 (-140) CANCELLED
SHANA DOBSON defeats PRISCILA CACHOEIRA
Fight card prediction recap: 126-65-6
HOW MMA DFS SCORING WORKS:
Lineup Requirements: Lineups will consist of 6 Fighters.
In salary cap contests, participants will create a lineup by selecting players listed in the Player Pool. Each player listed has an assigned salary and a valid lineup must not exceed the salary cap of $50,000.
Contest results will be determined by the total points accumulated by each individual lineup entry.
SCORING
As mentioned in the tip sheet above, heres my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC Auckland. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on odds to finish the fight. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.
Worth a look on DFS:
STARS:Turner, Kenan, Xiaonan
SCRUBS:Oleksiejczuk, Felder, Lookboonmee
Kick some tail this weekend!
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Read more:
UFC Auckland Best Bets and DFS Tips - Sports Illustrated
